The war between Russia and NATO?

Alex Tuscano

On February 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine.  The world’s eyes were fixed on this war.  In 21^st century no war is good news to anyone.  Everybody would condemn any war in any part of the world.  But to hear about Russia invading Ukraine is definitely not good news at all.  Ukraine is the biggest country among all the countries who dissociated from the Soviet Union.  the biggest weapons of the Soviet Union were installed in Ukraine.  The Chernobyl nuclear plant was the biggest installation of Soviet Union.

It may be a crazy dream of Putin to get Ukraine back into Russia.  But the issue is different in the war with Ukraine.  But the present war on Ukraine is not an idea of making Ukraine to join with Russia nor is it for change of government in Ukraine.

This war is to ensure that Ukraine does not join with the NATO.  To get a better idea of about the problem behind Ukraine’s joining with the NATO we need to go a little bit in the history of NATO.  War on Ukraine has to be understood in the context of history dating back to 1990-1991.  Finally, we will realize that it is not a war with Ukraine but with NATO.

 

How and why of the emergence of NATO:

·       After World War II in 1949 NATO was constituted to protect the capitalist block from the Soviet Socialist block. We saw in the World War II a situation where Hitler and his allies waged war on the western countries.  Hitler also attacked Soviet Union.  US, the British Empire, France, entered into alliance with the Soviet Union and defeated the Fascist forces of Hitler and his allies like, Italy, Spain and Japan.  Before entering into alliance with USSR US and others it was demanded that USSR dissolved the Communist International organization which had members of the communist parties all over the world.  There were communist parties all over the world who were taking command from the Soviet Union.  To do this Stalin fabricated a theory called “Socialism in one country”.  In reality the Second World War against Fascist forces were defeated on the soil of Soviet Union.

·       After the war the situation changed.  Apart from Germany and its allies the greater part of European countries (western Allies) were left weak due to the war.  The Soviet Union had emerged strong with its armies dominating all the states of central and eastern Europe.  The Soviet Union was perceived as a threat to the western Europe.

Warsaw Pact: 

·       Germany was the main enemy against which the World War II took place. But it was taken into NATO on 6^th May 1955. Its membership eventually translated into a very substantial contribution to the Alliance’s military strength in Europe.  Germany was the front line of the Cold War in Europe for 40 years. Warsaw pact was created on 14^th May 1955, in reaction to the integration of West Germany into NATO. It was a kind of balance of power or counterweight to NATO. It was officially called “the treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance”, commonly known as Warsaw Pact was a collective defence treaty signed between Soviet Union and seven other Eastern Bloc socialist republics of Central and eastern Europe on 14th My 1955.  This was a complementary organization of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance for the socialist states of the central and eastern Europe.  

The developments around the disarmament:

 Mikhail Gorbachev initiated and worked hard to bring the ‘arms race’ under control.  Both America and USSR were in competition in creating more and more sophisticated nuclear arms.  It was said that the nuclear arms piled up in the armouries of US and USSR to such an extent that using these the world would have been destroyed twelve times over.  Arms race had put the economy of USSR under tremendous strain. Through several negotiations between America and Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev tried to get the cooperation of US and drastically reduced the nuclear arms and ensured the possibilities of world peace. In this negotiation Mikhail Gorbachev was promised that NATO will not expand itself to the East European countries.

 

·       In 1989, popular civil and political public discontent toppled the communist government of the Warsaw Treaty countries. From 1989 to 1991 the communist governments were defeated.  The introduction economic reforms (Perestroika) and civil reform, democratisation (Glasnost), led to the collapsed of the Soviet Union itself.

·       After the collapsed of the Soviet Union the socialist block collapsed. All the nations who were drawn into the Soviet Block separated themselves and become independent Nations. The famous breaking down of the Berlin Wall epitomized the collapse of the Soviet Union.

·       Former socialist countries who had broken from the Soviet Union were eager to join the European union and participate in the glorious democracy and capitalist prosperity.  Eventually, they became part of NATO.

·       At the end Russia too was contemplating joining NATO.  But their attempts failed. Russia’s chances to join NATO was blocked by the major powers, like Germany from the West.

·       Ukraine is the biggest country among others who parted company with the Socialist Soviet Union.  It had the major installations of strategic weapons of the Soviet Union.  Ukraine was loyal to Russia and did not join EU and the least of all, NATO. But the present dispensation under the president, Volodymyr Zelensky Ukraine is open to join EU and NATO.

·       NATO has been extending its arms to all the states which have come out of Soviet Union. Indirectly It is an extension of US forces on the borders of Russia.

·       But in spite of the promise to Mikhail Gorbachev to not to extend NATO to the socialist countries, in 1999 NATO launched a military operation against Yugoslavia without UN sanction. NATO bombed Yugoslavia for several days killing several thousand people, mostly civilian and caused a massive damage to the country’s infrastructure. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization carried out an aerial bombing campaign against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (the Kosovo War).  The air strike lasted from 24^th March 1999 to 10^th June 1999

·       The breach of Promise to the Soviet Union (Gorbachev) and the aggression against Yugoslavia has contributed to the attitude of Russia towards NATO. NATO was created against the Soviet Union.  When its relevance was over after the end of cold war there was a need to disband the NATO.  The Soviet Union had already abandoned the Warsaw Pack.  But US and its allied nations continue to expand in the direction of Russia.  This raises great security concerns for Russia.

·       America and the NATO forces continue to exist with its prime objective to position themselves against Russia.  Russia has not been a threat to any of the NATO member countries and much less to US, Great Briton and West Europe.    In this scenario Russia is isolated and does not enjoy the good will from the NATO countries.  If NATO comes to the boarders of Russia, it will definitely make Russia very vulnerable.  Hence to prevent Ukraine from entering into NATO is a legitimate demand Russia can have.  Most of the developments, including defence machinery in Ukraine is part of the development from USSR.  War on Ukraine is in reality war on NATO and its expansion policies.  If US could carry out 10 years of war against the North Vietnam to prevent the expansion of Socialism should Russia not prevent Ukraine from joining the NATO? 

America’s role in the international affairs:

·       The use of nuclear weapon: On July 16, 1945 the United States detonated in the New Mexico desert, to carry out the world’s first nuclear weapons test explosion. Three weeks later, at 8.15 in the morning on August 6, the US bombers threw the uranium-based atomic a bomb “Little Boy” on Hiroshima, a home of approximately 320,000 people.  In minutes half of the city vanished.  Three days later, the US leaders ordered “Fat Man” a plutonium-based bomb with an explosive yield of 21 kilo tons, dropped on Nagasaki, home to over 260,000 people.

·       Example of the Vietnam War. If we recall the Vietnam war, we will realise that it war was fought on the wrong assumption. North Vietnam was a socialist country strongly aligned to the Soviet Union and Communist China. South Vietnam was not a socialist country. South Vietnam was made to believe that it was facing a threat from North Vietnam and the Soviet Union. American believed that they were morally bound to defend South Vietnam.  Further, American wanted to prevent the spread of communist regime to come down further to south in Asia.  America fought ten years of most unsuccessful war. A small country like North Vietnam brutally defeated the world’s mighty military power like America.  It took just a few years for both south Vietnam and North Vietnam to become one united country

·       War on Afghanistan: In 1978 People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) gained power.  This party was pro-Soviet Union.  The fundamentalist Muslim, Mujahideen waged a ward against the PDPA and civil war broke out in Afghanistan.  PDPA requested the Soviet Union to intervene and save the PDPA government against the fundamentalist Mujahideen.  In December 24, 1979 Soviet Union had invaded Afghanistan under the pretext of upholding the Soviet-Afghan Friendship Treaty 1978.  America came to the aid of Mujahideen and used Osama Bin Ladin to fight against the Soviet Union’s aggression.  The Soviet Union withdrew its forces from Afghanistan and the fundamentalist Taliban came to power.  US used Osama Bin Ladin to organize war against the Soviet Union.  They funded him to the teeth.  Later Osama Bin Ladin attacked the twin trade Tower in America.  America in vengeance against this terrorist act attacked Afghanistan.  America occupied Afghanistan for 20 years.  Once they withdrew their forces Afghanistan is back to square one of Taliban rule.

·       War on Iraq: When Saddam Hussain attacked and captured Kuwait, the American forces marched towards Iraq.  Falsehood and lies were used to make sure that Saddam Husain was ousted and killed.  America had used Saddam Husain to wage war against Iran to settle the score with Iran who had ousted the America supported Shah of Iran.  America had supplied chemical weapons of mass destruction to Iraq to be used against Iran.  America and Great Briton wanted to search for the chemical weapons.  Under this pretext America and Great Britain went ahead with the war against Iraq and made sure that Saddam Husain was unseated unceremoniously and hang.

      Was war on Ukraine necessary?

·       The issue of Ukraine not joining NATO could have been settled through negotiation and the war could have been avoided.  Since 2014 the mood in Ukraine was changing against Russia.  America and the Western media had already started Media War against Ukraine who had fortified its western border.  We would like to state equivocally that War is evil and nobody should support the present war in Ukraine.  But Russia is not the only country that should be blamed for the war.  NATO supporting indirectly and even by supplying arms to Ukraine makes the war to continue.  The NATO alliance and principally the Unite States of America should not get into the war, even indirectly and encourage Ukraine to sort out the dispute amicably.  NATO should not harbour ambition to bring Ukraine in its fold.  This will continue the arms race and the security of the nations will be at stake at the expense of peace and development of the people.

 

 

 

Dark Alley in Indian Politics

 

Election 2022:  

Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa.

If there is anybody who is not surprised by the results of the elections to these five states then he is either unconcerned about the elections or he must be brilliant in understanding the mood of the people.  Yes, I mean it.

 

As for me I was surprised by the results.  When Amit Shah said BJP is going to win the elections in all five states, I thought he lives a fools’ paradise.  But was right minus one.

 

How did BJP win the elections?  There were great and mighty issues before the people.  There is a large scale un unemployment in the country and especially in Uttar Pradesh; the fuel prices have shot up to the sky; inflation is very high; the covid deaths, the delta virus had resulted in massive miseries to the people.  There was shortage of Oxygen, there was huge crowding of corpses in the crematoriums. The dead bodies were floating in the ma Ganga.  The people were cursing the Prime minister Modi vowing not to vote for his party.

The farmers’ agitation was so strong and long. The home minster’s son driving over the farmers’ procession and killing the farmers. In spite of these issues people voted by BJP!  Did the farmers’ agitation had no impact on the elections?  Narendra Modi did feel that the farm laws he had promulgated would spell disaster for BJP. With this fear he repealed the farm laws.  But this repeal did not bring much cheer to the farmers.

This reminds me of the elections prior to this.  Demonitization had a massive impact on the economy and the livelihood of the people involved in informal sector.

It looks like even if Modi makes the Himalayan Mountain fall on the heads of the people, they will still vote for Modi and BJP.

I would like to analyse these several aspects of the victory of Modi and BJP briefly. I would divide my illustration into two parts.  Part one, all the non-BJP parties which are called opposition parties and their politics.  Why I prefer calling them non-BJP parties is because they are not opposition parties. For one, they have no character of opposition parties; they are what has been called as BJP B parties.  I will give a little more explanation to it later on.

1.       Did farmers’ agitation not play a role in the elections?  First and foremost, the farmers’ agitation was independent of all political parties.  Unlike Anna Hazare’s agitation, which was hijacked by BJP.  On the contrary, the farmers’ agitation did not entertain any political parties to enter the agitation.  Farmers believed that their cause will be served by any political party.  If it comes to the Congress and the rest of non-BJP parties, they would have brought about farm laws which would have the same character and impact on the farmers.  Though UPA legislated the landmark Land Acquisition Law, it only spoke of fair compensation to be given to the farmers rather than bringing the farmers’ fortune on par with the fortunes of the industrialists.

 

2.      The Congress Party: The congress Party in general and Rahul Gandhi in particular have been raising right questions and pointing out at the right issues.  These are the problems of the people.  Unemployment, price rise, petrol and diesel prices, Indo China boarder issue, the handling of the Corona infections, Hatras killing of a dalith girl, Kheri massacre of the farmers, the farm laws and the farmers’ plight etc.  Non in the opposition parties were as vocal as the Congress party.  Even Akhilesh Yadav had not opened his mouth on these issues.  He came out only during the election campaign.  I do not find congress lacking in raising right issues and campaigning in UP, Uttarakhand, Goa and even In Punjab.

3.      In Punjab, I must say quite clearly that Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka went horribly wrong. It was absolutely absurd on part of these people to bring in Navjot Singh Sidhu as a president of Punjab congress party.  Even a child could have said that Navjot Singh Sidhu was absolutely a wrong person for this post.  In all his body language, he showed himself to be pompous and totally immature.  There was a fear that he would join Aam Admi Party and that would make the chances of the Congress bleak.  If he had joined the Aam Admi Party he would have brought bad luck to that party.  After he was made the president of Punjab congress he functioned as an enemy of the Congress Party.  There was no need to for anyone to campaign against the Congress party.  Navjot Sidhu was far excellent in destroying the chances of the Congress Party in Punjab.     

4.      All the senior and seasoned politicians of the Congress Party in Punjab were not drawn into the discussion over the issues of leadership of the Punjab Pradesh Congress party and planning for the election campaign.  Sunil Jakhar, Manish Tiwari, Ashwini Kumar and many others were far more experienced and they knew the ground situation better.  Drawing people as star campaigners was decided more by the personal equation Rahul had with people than by the competence of the person.  Sunil Jakhar claimed that Ravat who was made in charge of Punjab congress party had his own agenda in Punjab.

5.      Anand Sharma, Sachin Pilot, Sahshi Taroor, Gulam Nabi Azad, Manish Tiwari, and many members of group 23 are long standing and committed congress members.  They have worked hard for the party.  But they do not find themselves in the coterie of Rahul Gandhi.  This has a reason.  I guess Rahul Gandhi is not confident about these senior and tall congressmen.  His position in the party is not strong as he does not have a mandate of the wider members of the party. 

6.      My suggestion to the Congress party would be when there is a situation of election preparation all the stalwarts of the congress party should hold a conclave and discuss the strategies for fighting election.  Even in other situation when the party faces a challenge all the big heads of the party should come together to face these challenges.  I would go further to suggest that every two years the party should organize national level meetings to revitalize the party.

7.      A word about Rahul Gandhi:  Rahul Gandhi is a very hardworking person when he is at his job.  He has been maligned by the opposition parties, principally the BJP.  BJP was afraid that Rahul could make the fight of BJP difficult.  Therefore, they were always targeting him and the Congress Party. Withing the Congress party there are many who may not approve Rahul Gandhi’s method of operation.  Rahul Gandhi should venture into interacting with all the members of the party and try to get their cooperation.  He should keep his friends closer but he should keep his detractors even closer and work with all and get their suggestions.

Victory of BJP:

It seems BJP is able to win the elections after elections even without delivering on any front.  Narendra Modi appears to be a factor behind the success of BJP.  Is this the only reality of BJP?  Of course not. BJP has changed the dynamics of fighting elections:

1.      He has created an image about himself as a supreme pontiff of the Hindutva.  He was the chief priest and Poojary in laying the foundation stone of Ram temple.  He was the chief priest when it came to opening up of the Kashi Mathura corridor.  He is accepted as an unparallel leader who can defend Hindu religion.  He has converted the BJP into a religious organization.  All Hindus are made to look up to him to ensure the salvation (Moksha) of all the Hindus.

2.      But the practice of the religious organization is devoid of any spirituality or religion.  He has divided the society into Hindus and Muslims.  He has revived the old mantra of treating the Muslims as the enemy number one of the Hindus.  Even the British who rules India were not considered as enemy number one.  Golwalkar called the Muslims as the old and bitterest enemies.  He writes, “We have allowed ourselves to be duped into believing our foes to be our friends.”  (M. S. Golwalkar, We or our Nationhood Defined, Nagpur, 1939).  The hate campaign against the Muslims and the people of other minority community was the most effective instrument BJP and the Sangh Parivar used to divide the nation and make Hindus live in fear.  Their strategy consisted in spread fear among the Hindus that if they are not careful the population of Muslims will overtake the population of Hindus and then the Hindus will become slaves of the Muslims.  There is not factual evidence to show this development.  But this is a convenient strategy to wing the Hindu votes.  Golwalkar attacked the nationalists for “hugging to our bosom our most inveterate enemies (Muslims) thus endangering our very existence”.  The Sangh Parivar had adopted the position of Golwalkar in letter and spirit. With this sort of campaign BJP has succeed in capturing the imagination of the majority Hindus and gaining their support.  It is using religion to capture the political power.

3.      The other very important factor responsible for the victory of BJP is the lack of unity among the opposition parties.  Akhilesh Yadav recently said that this is the last chance for the prajatantra.  He pointed out that the BJP is trying to steal the mandate by robbing the voting machines.  Akhilesh should have realized this before the elections were commence.  He ruled out point blank any understanding with the other major opposition parties.  He was afraid that if he had collaborated with the Congress then Congress will grow in UP.  He missed the point that the greater danger was not in allowing Congress a foothold in UP but letting BJP have a second term and consolidate itself and allow the opposition to be paralyzed.

4.      Mamata Banerjee also played a spoiler game by trying to eat away into Congress Party’s hold in Tripura, Goa and Punjab.  She declared that the Congress Party as incapable of defeating the BJP. Therefore, she went out to destroy the Congress party.  In Goa the Congress Party had put up a spirited fight against the BJP.  But the Trinamool Congress party and Aam Admi party succeeded dividing the anti BJP votes and gave a cake walk to the BJP.

This election was the last chance for the opposition to come together to defeat the BJP.  The Congress Party finds itself in the wilderness and the opposition unity against the BJP is “a pie in the sky”.